If you’re a Chief Human Resources or Chief People Officer, then you can request to join a brand new community I put together called Future Of Work Leaders which focuses on the future of work and employee experience. Join leaders from Tractor Supply, Johnson & Johnson, Lego, Dow, Northrop Grumman and many others. We come together virtually each month and once a year in-person to tackle big themes that go beyond traditional HR.
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The future of workforce strategy is no longer shaped just by internal HR priorities. It’s increasingly influenced by external forces many HR leaders never had to consider deeply before-global tariffs, supply chain disruptions, healthcare vulnerabilities, and the rapid adoption of AI.
At our most recent Future of Work Leaders (CHRO Group) virtual meeting, one thing became clear. The lines between economic forces and talent strategy have blurred. What once lived squarely in the domains of finance, operations, or procurement is now directly impacting employee experience, talent retention, and organizational resilience.
Tariffs may seem like a distant policy debate, but their downstream effects-cost volatility, recession risks, healthcare challenges, hiring freezes-land squarely at HR’s doorstep. Leaders today must expand their strategic radar, asking harder questions and preparing their organizations for a far more complex future.
1. Tariffs as a Talent Risk
The conversation opened with a stark realization: tariffs aren’t just an operational cost issue-they are a workforce stability issue. While some organizations have minimal direct exposure, others face significant risk tied to global sourcing of raw materials, textiles, and goods. Even companies less affected today are taking proactive steps to diversify sourcing because the ripple effects can change quickly. In this environment, HR leaders are increasingly pulled into strategic conversations that once lived far from their desks.
Key Leadership Questions:
- How vulnerable is our workforce plan to geopolitical disruptions like tariffs?
- Which talent pipelines or geographic hubs could be impacted by sourcing shifts?
- Are we integrated early enough into supply chain and finance planning to foresee risks?
2. The Cracks in Incentive Models
Incentive plans that once looked bulletproof are suddenly under scrutiny. Leaders shared growing anxiety that if financial targets aren’t met-because of tariffs, recession, or supply shocks-many employees won’t receive expected bonuses or equity awards. This is especially problematic for newer employees who didn’t benefit from past high-performing years. Some companies are contemplating one-time awards to fill the gap, but most admit there is no easy solution without creating new precedents or eroding governance standards.
Key Leadership Questions:
- How heavily does our retention strategy rely on STI or LTI payouts?
- What’s our plan to keep high performers engaged if bonuses underperform for a year or more?
- How do we ensure fairness between veteran employees and newer hires who missed prior rewards?
3. The Silent Crisis: Access to Prescription Drugs
Beyond workforce planning, a more personal worry emerged: employee healthcare. Several leaders raised alarms about the potential tariff-driven disruption of the generic drug supply, most of which comes from China. This isn’t a distant worry-it’s a near-term operational risk. If generics become scarce or prices surge, companies could face an immediate dilemma: absorb rising costs or pass them on to employees, hurting both health outcomes and morale.
Key Leadership Questions:
- How reliant are our health plans on imported generics?
- Are we prepared for potential shortages or cost spikes in chronic disease medications?
- How can we proactively boost preventive care to reduce future dependency on medication?
4. Investing in Well-Being Without Breaking the Bank
In response to healthcare risks and rising medical costs, leaders shared innovative low-cost well-being initiatives. One organization ran a virtual bootcamp program using a local trainer, achieving meaningful health improvements at minimal expense. Others are focusing on communication-amplifying existing fitness and mental health resources rather than launching expensive new programs. The common thread: even small investments in well-being can yield major returns in employee resilience and cost management.
Key Leadership Questions:
- How can we expand well-being offerings without significant new budget?
- Are there internal champions who could organically drive healthier habits?
- How do we measure the long-term ROI of small well-being investments?
5. AI as Both a Solution and a Risk
Another major discussion point was the rapid integration of AI-not just as a technological tool, but as a workforce strategy. Some organizations are already mandating AI evaluations before approving new hires. Others are investing in AI training for executives to bridge the “art of the possible” gap. Yet leaders were also candid about risks: overreliance on AI could weaken human judgment, creativity, and critical thinking. Striking the right balance is now a core leadership responsibility.
Key Leadership Questions:
- How are we equipping leaders to use AI thoughtfully — not blindly?
- Are we protecting and reinforcing human-centered skills like critical thinking and influence?
- What ethical guardrails and training do we need to prevent “algorithmic dependency”?
6. Proactive Cost Discipline, Not Panic Cuts
Despite fears of economic slowdown, the consensus was clear: avoid reactionary layoffs if possible. Leaders are focusing on surgical hiring pauses, tightening non-essential travel, and reallocating resources more strategically. The approach is about trimming thoughtfully now to avoid deeper cultural scars later. Cost discipline doesn’t mean employee experience has to be sacrificed-it means being smarter, not harsher.
Key Leadership Questions:
- Are we pausing in the right areas without losing future capacity?
- How are we communicating cost measures transparently to maintain trust?
- Are we balancing fiscal responsibility with cultural stewardship?
7. Reading the Right Signals
Expanded Intro: When asked how they’re gauging whether things are stabilizing, leaders pointed to a mix of indicators: consumer sentiment, vendor behaviors, client hiring patterns, and broader economic signals like commodity prices. No one is relying on a single headline or policy announcement. The future, they agreed, will belong to organizations that move fast-not react to news cycles, but constantly read weak signals and adjust early.
Key Leadership Questions:
- What external and internal signals are we systematically tracking?
- Are we building systems to detect early shifts in employee, customer, or market behavior?
- How ready are we to pivot talent strategies based on subtle emerging trends?
📋 Rapid Action Checklist for CHROs
Use this to guide immediate action planning with your leadership team:
✅ Audit exposure to key materials or labor impacted by tariffs
✅ Stress test STI/LTI models for underperformance scenarios
✅ Review healthcare supply risks, especially for generics
✅ Promote preventive care to reduce chronic drug dependency
✅ Launch low-cost, high-impact well-being initiatives
✅ Train leaders on AI’s potential and limitations
✅ Review hiring policies to include AI efficiency evaluation
✅ Tighten cost levers (travel, backfills) without triggering fear
✅ Build a dashboard of workforce signals: hiring trends, vendor behavior, consumer sentiment
✅ Communicate uncertainty with clarity, candor, and confidence
Closing: The Expanding CHRO Mandate
This roundtable made one thing clear: the CHRO role has permanently evolved. It’s no longer enough to manage talent pipelines and engagement surveys. Today’s CHRO must also be an economist, a strategist, a futurist, and a technology translator.
Whether it’s tariffs, AI, healthcare, or shifting employee expectations, the leaders who can anticipate complexity-and build human-centered systems that thrive in it-will define the next era of work.
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If you’re a Chief Human Resources or Chief People Officer, then you can request to join a brand new community I put together called Future Of Work Leaders which focuses on the future of work and employee experience. Join leaders from Tractor Supply, Johnson & Johnson, Lego, Dow, Northrop Grumman and many others. We come together virtually each month and once a year in-person to tackle big themes that go beyond traditional HR.